Panel 1: Sino-US Trade Relations and Asia-Pacific Area Economic Situation
【2018-11-22】 来源:共识院

(From the left: Zhao Wei, Moderator; Robert Hormats, Former US Deputy Secretary of State & Vice President of Kissinger Think Tank; Ji Peiding, Former Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Wu Zhongze, Former Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology; Hou Yunchun, Former Deputy Director of the Development Research Center of the State Council; Ai Feng, Former Editor of Economic Daily)

Moderator: For today's situation of Sino-US trade and Sino-US relations are facing, there is a saying like after he took office, Trump took tariff policy-induced, it was also said China and the US have developed to a necessary stage, I would like to hear your opinion, do you think is caused by a change of government causal factors, there are still inevitable factors?


Robert Hormats: I think it's inevitable that relations between the two countries over time will change, because change is normalcy. China is becoming a modern society highly innovative high-tech, he will have a significant impact on international trade finance and investment market, he will play a bigger role in the international economy. The United States some time to understand China embodies a challenge to corporate America and new competition brought new competition problems in the global economy faced with the past is not the same. We also discuss the global financial economy.


Moderator: There are similar predicament challenges, to solve this problem we can learn new lessons from history in history.


Robert Hormats: Yes, I think this is a good question, I think you can see more and more obvious the government can learn from the private sector, the private sector can learn from the government, to promote understanding of how to create a rule to better manage the new technology of the 21st century. For example, when I worked in the government we have a joint commission, including information technology as well as business representatives from China, and US government officials, Microsoft, have to sit down and look at challenges of new technologies, and how we cooperate, to better understand, to carry out comprehensive cooperation from the entire community, the government and the private sector can be deployed better cooperation. The private sector is leading in many areas, so we can learn to develop new rules.


Moderator: Speaking of technology, it has a very special strategic importance in this trade, Mr. Wu, what’s your opinion about cooperation and competition in science and technology? Are thy challenges or opportunities for Sino-US relations and global economy? It is reported recently that, Trump is still brewing a new round of government controls on sensitive technology, so the technology sector is facing some difficulties also face the impact of Sino-US trade.


Wu Zhongze: From 2013 to 2015, we organized 20,000 scientific and technological workers across the country to make a technical forecast of more than 1,100 major products in China. The predicted result is 17% of the products, and our products in China lead the world in technology. Twenty-four percent were in the running position and 59 percent were in the running position. That is to say, most of our products are still in a position to follow others in the world. The result of this prediction is consistent with the technical forecast of the same period in South Korea and the basic result of the analysis of Chinese products. China’s technological development has gone through a complex process, as I have just reported. Now, the trade war between China and the United States is ostensibly an economic and trade issue. In fact, I think the first is the competition between global production chains and value chains. The second is a competition for resource allocation networks. Third, there is a competition between new and old drivers in scientific and technological research and innovation, which, in the final analysis, is the competition between the strengths of scientific and technological innovation of the two countries.


The United States now realizes that China is better than them and has begun to curb the momentum of China’s technological development. On the surface, it is a trade issue. In fact, it is developing a scope of regulation for China’s high-tech products, restricting Chinese companies’ acquisition of high-tech fields in the United States. Companies of the class can be said that they are facing ups and downs. For our country, there may be a comprehensive technical blockade or export restrictions. We must have a clear understanding of this, and think that this is a big thing that affects the country’s life. We only have one way, first independent innovation, second open innovation, third fusion innovation, such a way to go, learn from the ZTE incident, we have to brush which technology is the card neck in each field Technology requires us to concentrate on the advantages of the system. The market allocates such a basic resource in a few years. Only by itself, the key technologies of advanced core technology can’t be bought, and we can’t change it. This is a lesson we should learn. That’s it.


Moderator: Thank you, Minister Wu, I want to listen to the views of Mr. Hou on this issue. We also noticed that now that China-US trade disputes are resolved, on the one hand, we see China actively promoting dialogue and communication. On the other hand, we also see that China wants to use this opportunity to improve its economic development model and improve its international competitiveness. Ways to enhance the defensive capabilities of a series of consequences of the trade war, so I want to hear your opinion, how can your China improve the quality of his real economy at the crossroads of Sino-US trade dilemma, and then use this way to resist the occurrence of trade wars.


Hou Yunchun: There is a saying in China that is staying relax in a fishing boat and ignoring storm. Relying on further reform and opening up we can deal with this Sino-US trade dispute. I think the Sino-US trade terminal should find both sides able to accept some compromises. If the United States feels that China's products are improving, they will rely on their advantages to move toward higher technological fields. We must continue to promote our technological progress in the economic development of reform and opening up, and move toward the high-end of the global manufacturing industry chain. In fact, this is also a process that relies on scientific and technological progress, relies on competition, and jointly improves and develops in competition. Only this is the only correct path. This problem cannot be solved by trade wars.


Moderator: You have a very interesting sentence in your speech. You said that when you have a comparative advantage, it is a driving force for the development of globalization. At the same time, you talk about the fact that China and the United States now seem to be reducing their complementarity in product import and export. I feel that China and the United States have comparative advantages in other areas, and there is no complementary space to continue to promote the role of the two in the space of globalization.


Hou Yunchun: The advantages of the United States are very large for our country. We have a deficit in the complementary trade between China and the United States, but the US trade in services is a surplus. The US figure has a trade surplus of 90 billion against us last year. This is one. Another one has just said, in fact, the trade deficit has remained in the United States, but the deficit in profits has remained in China. The United States is a surplus of interests for us, and we are a trade surplus. We must rely on further opening up to enhance ourselves. China and the United States do have differences in tariffs on products. The comprehensive transportation relationship of the United States is 2%. We are about 10%. This is not something we cannot discuss to make some adjustments. One is allowed by the WTO rules. We are developing countries. Developing countries can use some tariffs to protect their own industries. Of course, President Trump also said that the United States is also a developing country. He said that we are only developing faster. This is hard to say, if you can't discuss it.


Of course, after the United States imposed tariffs on us, we also took some measures accordingly, but we did not make any moves and did not increase the weight. At the same time of our tariffs, the tariffs of other countries' products, three tariffs within one year, the total tariff level decreased from 9.8% last year to 7.5%. We just concluded the Shanghai Import Expo, holding an import fair in the name of the country. In the history of human economy, the first time in the history of trade, this shows that we are further developing the process of globalization when China and other countries jointly promote economic development, share symbiosis, and share economic globalization in common development.


Moderator: Thank you, Director Hou. China is now taking reforms and opening up with practical actions to promote regional economic integration as another means of maintaining the multilateral trading system and resisting the risks and consequences of trade wars. I now want to ask Minister Ji to talk to us on the diplomatic level. In actively promoting regional economic integration, please give us an analysis of the reasons behind.


Ji Peiding: I think China's entire diplomatic reality is centered on Xi Jinping's participation in building a community of human destiny. China has proposed a Belt and Road. He is a route. He is a platform that shows that China embraces the world with a broad mind. The Belt and Road benefit is not only China but the whole world. Regarding the Sino-US trade war, I would like to say that we must look at this issue from a broader perspective. I only think that the trade deficit is unfair. It has many factors. The first is established from the United Nations, from the establishment of the World Bank, the establishment of the international monetary and financial organization, and the establishment of the WTO. After the establishment of the WTO, the overall power is qualitatively changed from the quantitative change. From the recent one or two decades, I think Trump The president’s priority as the president of the United States, I can understand, because I feel uncomfortable. The overall proportion of the United States is declining, and he has no way, but this trend of causing this situation, I think no one can stop it. Because of the Second World War, the United Nations established forty or fifty countries. Today, 199 countries were originally based on gold. In 1971, they were based on the US dollar.


I have a point of view. In fact, the war in Afghanistan and the war in Iraq are all about spending money. In fact, it is still the money spent on the whole world. Why are there so many American deficits? It actually has the right to issue US dollars. The so-called quantitative easing I think is to print more money. I used to talk to a president. I said in general that China’s exports will go to the world in the future. Cotton will go to the world. There is no way to quantify easing. Is the currency of your African country useful? How much can the Chinese renminbi play? In fact, the United States is still very cheap in the big arrangements of the world economy. If it is only trade figures, it cannot fully reflect the problem. I think the best way is now, everyone can calmly discuss, to analyze the differences between us, do not take hard. I sincerely hope that the Secretary of State of our country, Mr. Hormats, said that the leaders of China and the United States and the leaders of the Group of 20 can bring some good benefits to Sino-US trade and the world economy. Thank you.


Moderator: Welcome Mr. Ai.


Ai Feng: I want to say something.


Moderator: That's good.


Ai Feng: Because Mr. Hormats is here, I mainly tell you. Because you are an influential person in the United States, what do you say? Both sides of the Sino-US trade dispute feel that they are suffering. China feels that China is also suffering. The United States feels that the United States has also suffered losses. I think this is a problem. Both sides have suffered losses. However, the Chinese have suffered losses, and the Americans have lost their losses. I want to take advantage of it and don't want to lose money. Can we use low value-added products for high value-added products without loss? So why can China develop if it suffers? One of the main reasons, Baffet said is very good, because the Chinese are working too hard. The Americans did not work hard for the Chinese. Although China’s life in the 1940s was very hard, it still developed.


Now that Americans want a way to avoid losses, Marx said a word. That sentence I think is a universal truth. What is the difference between the value of scientific production and reproduction? When science is created, it takes a lot of effort. Once it is created, it is very worry-free. When I was in middle school, I found that Ohm's Law took many years. After I created it, I finished the lesson. This is the law of science, so this creates an inequality. I created it so much. You are so Take it away. The place where the world's progress is tight is that it is easy to expand after the creation of reproduction. Why do we stand cheaper with the United States, because you are high in level, your technology is developing, you create a lot, I can get rid of it. I am quite backward with you, and there is no technology in Africa. How can my technology improve? Countries around the world are developing faster than the United States. I think it is right. Because there are so many good things in the United States, I will learn from you. If you learn from you, you can’t ask me to create you for ten years. I also use ten years. I may have learned it in half a year.


In the second aspect, the United States is psychologically unbalanced. I have taken for so long, but do you think it is possible for China to take it away? It is absolutely impossible. I am not opposed to the protection of intellectual property rights, but the concept is different. In terms of economic words, it is the advantage of latecomer. The basic law of the United States cannot be changed. The best products that you keep secret can come out. I can study it in China, so I don’t think Americans should passively protect intellectual property rights. You should make good use of it. You have the biggest benefit of the monopoly period of intellectual property. I don’t know that I don’t sell it to you in China. That is wrong. You have made the proceeds of monopoly value. I have more money to study new things. The United States has made a fortune, the world has improved, and others have followed you, so everyone is coordinating.


Moderator: We are grateful to Ai Lao for opening a dose of pharmacy to the United States. Does Mr. Hormats also respond to you, what advice do you have for China?


Ai Feng: Because it is a monopoly to protect intellectual property rights, can I imitate it? These things are not clear, only I can steal your intelligence may be infringement of intellectual property rights, but you invented something I did not study. Chinese use your technology, and have learned that it is unrealistic for you to think that this thing is completely negative.


Moderator: Then we will leave this opportunity to respond to Mr. Hormats.


Robert Hormats: I think Mr. Ai shared a very interesting point. I would like to respond to this. First of all, he said that in other countries, the study of other peoples or other companies and the violation of intellectual property rights are different. Intellectual property rights should be protected. We also agree that the national people’s company should Learning from each other, you should also find new ideas, new technology, Edison is a good example. Edison invented electricity and invented many other things. The Internet is the same. People use the Internet to develop new applications, apply Internet technologies to enrich people's experiences, and then develop higher-level technologies. China is very good at using the Internet to expand. Applications on the Internet, and soon able to scale up faster than in the United States, so this is a natural progression, we really should learn from each other, we can certainly learn a lot from the Chinese people in the development of the digital economy Things, like WeChat and other applications, a lot of applications on mobile phones, we can learn a lot, because in this field we are backward, so it is very important to learn from each other during the development process.


I mentioned Edison, innovation is to succeed, then to have profit, to learn from the lessons of failure, I give you an example of Edison, Edison tried more than 100 times to be able to invent light bulbs, some reporters asked him, you Have you failed so many times, what do you feel? What does Edison mean and what is failure? He said that you have tried more than 100 times and have not invented the light bulb. He said that your statement is wrong. I have learned more than 100 ways to invent light bulbs, so I use a lot of ideas to see what works and what doesn't. Learn from mistakes, learn from the successes and mistakes of all, and then we can really discover what works. As I mentioned earlier, if the world information is fragmented, innovation is successful because there are so many scientists and entrepreneurs from China and the United States who have successfully cooperated. For example, MAT has Chinese, American, Japanese, and Indian scientists working together to innovate. They learn from each other, their different backgrounds, different experiences, different skills, and then build such a team to innovate and be able to innovate across borders, whether in the lab or through virtual means, via the Internet. Only then can we find new breakthroughs, so I think it is very important for our two countries to cooperate so as to continue to expand bilateral interactions in all aspects of economy and technology. Otherwise, both China and the United States will suffer losses, and the entire world economy will be adversely affected. The 21st century should be a century of cooperation.


There is a picture in front of the horse. There is a red flag in front of the carriage. We don't want to do the same thing in the future, because we are in an era of globalization. We want to avoid conflicts. We have to work hard so that we can eliminate prejudice and have more cooperation.